A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
